By Change Research Team — July 31, 2026
Four Magnificent Seven earnings, a Fed decision, and a flare-up in the Middle East. This was one of the busiest weeks of the year, and markets moved on every headline.
THE FED HOLDS, AGAIN
The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged this week, the fifth straight hold. The vote wasn't unanimous. Three policymakers pushed for a quarter-point hike, pointing to inflation that's staying elevated, partly on energy costs tied to the conflict in the Middle East. The Fed said it's watching incoming data closely before its next meeting.
Translation for traders: rate policy is still in wait-and-see mode, and the split vote signals real disagreement inside the Fed about where things go next.
OIL: A WILD WEEK, THEN A COOLDOWN
Oil had one of its most volatile weeks of the year. Tensions between the US and Iran flared up again mid-week after a pause in hostilities over the weekend, and crude spiked hard, Brent briefly pushed above $93 a barrel. By Friday, signs that crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz were recovering took some heat out of the market. Brent settled back near $88-89, WTI around $82-84.
For the month, crude is still up sharply, one of its biggest monthly gains in a year. Traders should expect more swings here. Any shift in the Iran situation, positive or negative, tends to move oil fast.
BIG TECH EARNINGS: A MIXED BAG
Four of the Magnificent Seven reported this week, and the results split the market.
Microsoft was the standout. Revenue came in at $90 billion, up around 18% year-over-year, comfortably ahead of estimates. Azure crossed $100 billion in full-year revenue for the first time, growing 43%. Copilot passed 30 million paid seats. The stock jumped double digits after the report.
Meta told a different story. Revenue beat expectations at $60.8 billion, up 27% year-over-year, but profitability took a hit. Margins compressed sharply as AI infrastructure spending ramped up, and free cash flow came in well below prior quarters. The market punished the stock even with the top-line beat, a reminder that revenue growth alone doesn't guarantee a rally when spending runs hot.
Apple posted another solid quarter, revenue and EPS both ahead of consensus, with strength across iPhone and Services. It also marked Tim Cook's final earnings call as CEO.
Amazon crossed $200 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time, with AWS reaccelerating well past analyst expectations on the back of AI and custom chip demand.
Net effect: the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all bounced back strongly on Thursday after a rough midweek session, with chipmakers leading gains.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
- Any further movement on the Iran ceasefire, and what it does to oil
- Follow-through (or fade) in Microsoft and Amazon after this week's rally
- Fresh commentary from Fed officials on the path for the next meeting
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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